The Emergent Democratic Minority

Now that the prophecies of an Emerging Democratic Majority by chaps like John Judis and Ruy Teixeira have been laid to rest, let's look at the more realistic idea of an emerging Democratic minority, which seems more likely.

Michael Barone takes a look at the demographics of the late election and notes the desertions of several long-term stalwarts from the Democratic rank and file.

The Jacksonians from Appalachia and the South who have been Democratic since the days of Andrew Jackson in 1828 seem to be definitely gone.

The Germans and Scandinavians from Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa are definitely on the move, in particular in Wisconsin.

The Rust Belt was a disaster for Democrats as industrial workers in trouble voted against big government.

The Hispanics are showing definite signs of movin' on up from liberalism, in Florida, in Texas, and in Nevada and New Mexico.

Even the Finns in upper Michigan are deserting the ship.

The only chaps still firmly in the Democratic camp are gentry liberals and blacks. My prediction is that blacks will start deserting the Democrats as soon as Barack Obama leaves the presidency and they no longer feel the need to defend their guy to the death.

That leaves our friends the gentry liberals as the core of the Democratic Party. I want to believe that gentry liberals are Democrats because they benefit disproportionately from Big Government. Just voting their pocket-books, don't you know. But the trouble is that I know too many liberals that don't work for the government. They are liberals because they believe.