Monday, August 13, 2012

Ryan Enthusiasm

Rule One about US politics is that liberals don't understand conservatives.  Today's proof of that rule is that Democrats are saying that the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) as vice-presidential nominee shows that Mitt Romney is panicking.

So I guess that the enthusiastic crowds suddenly showing up at Romney rallies are panicked bitter clingers.

On the contrary it looks like the Ryan pick has ignited enthusiasm in the Republican base.  That will go a long way to increasing the Republican presidential vote from 60 million in November 2008 to, maybe, 70 million in 2012.

To confirm that "something" has happened with the Ryan pick, the traffic at is up by 80-90 percent consistently in the three days since the Ryan announcement.

Now, why are Republican voters energized by Paul Ryan?  Well there can only be one reason.  They are energized because they know that Paul Ryan is Chairman of the House Budget Committee and he is the author of the Ryan budget plan that reforms Medicare-Medicaid and brings the out-of-control budget back into balance.

Apparently Paul Ryan right now has 50 percent name recognition.  I guess that all the people that knew about him are Republicans.  But Democrats ought to know a bit about him, because they have been running ads of Paul Ryan pushing grannie in her wheel-chair off a cliff!

When you think about it, it makes sense that Republican voters and Democratic voters divide on the question of Medicare.  For Republicans, Medicare should be something that enables them to choose sensibly between health care plans to find one that meets their health care needs at the right price.  Republicans don't want to have to hack through a government bureaucracy to get health care.

For Democratic voters, Medicare is a "right," which means that it is a benefit provided by political power.  Whatever it is, it is; the people rely on the politicians to "save" their Medicare.  Republicans expect to pay for health care, and they figure that, as paying customers, they ought to be able to get the best.  Democrats just expect health care to be provided as a benefit.

Why is Ryan enthusiasm important?  Republicans stayed home in 2008.  The Republican vote was 59.9 million, down from 62 million in 2004.  My guess is that it will take 70 million to win decisively in 2012.  Obama polled 69.4 million in 2008, but I'd be surprised if he got more that 66 million this November.

With real enthusiasm in the Republican base, overflowing into the homes of their suburban neighbors, there is always the mad hope that maybe 70 million is just for starters.  We won't know until November.

1 comment:

  1. "Republicans expect to pay for health care, and they figure that, as paying customers, they ought to be able to get the best. Democrats just expect health care to be provided as a benefit."
    republicans - what about people who can't afford health care? what about people who can afford but choose not to have any and just wait for something to go wrong knowing they will not be turned away because others are picking up the tab? democrats expect to pay for health care - they just want everyone to contribute, not just the middle class, (who, as usual, pick up a lot of tabs...)