Wednesday, May 9, 2012

A 60-40 Year?

The big question in any election is: who will turn out to vote?  That is the dirty little secret that the pollsters keep under wraps in their "turnout models."  That's why it is meaningless to show, right now, that the presidential race is tied.  Because the pollsters really don't know who will turn out in November.

But now we are beginning to get a look at things.  The 60-40 defeat of 80-year-old Senate incumbent Dick Lugar (R-IN) in the Republican primary sends a message.  The 60-40 success of a man-woman marriage amendment sends a message.  The majority piled up by Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) against all of his Democratic primary opponents sends a message.

The message is that it looks like Republican voters are coming out to play.  So if I were a Democrat, or if I were President Obama's campaign managers, I would start to get really worried.

On top of everything, it feels like Republican presumptive nominee Mitt Romney is hitting his stride.  He is starting to articulate an economic message, and he is starting to tout his business experience as an asset. (Imagine that!)  He is even taking a swipe at Julia, life of.

In my view it is serendipity that in the slowest recovery since the Great Depression the Republicans are running a candidate whose whole business experience is about starting up new businesses and trying to reorganize failing businesses.  Think about it.  As the economy struggles to create new jobs what else would be more timely that a politician in charge who really understands how jobs are saved and created?

I wonder if the American voters agree?

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