Wednesday, July 6, 2011

2012: The Liberal Annus Horribilis

Like I always say, the ageing liberal dynasty could have learned a lesson or two on economic policy from Ronald Reagan in the 1980s. The corrupt liberal dynasty could have learned a thing or two from Newt Gingrich's 1994 win and subsequent efforts to balance the budget. The fortunate liberal sons of the 2000s could have paid attention to the travails of the Bush administration. But they didn't. Great imperial dynasties never do see the end coming.

But next year, 2012, will see the liberals experience their annus horribilis. If you have a liberal friend, have mercy on them and don't rub it in.

Why is it possible to predict, a year out, how bad things will be for liberals next year? It just takes a little knowledge of economics and a lot of common sense.

The whole liberal program of tax, spend, and elect relied on the fact that you could always raise taxes on the rich, or promise new spending to the poor and/or the well-connected. Because the US had a staggering wealth that could be mortgaged with a fresh issue of government bonds.

But after a big financial crash the old game can't go on. As we have seen, the US National Debt has zoomed up to the 100 percent of GDP mark. That is when government debt gets to be a problem. You can tell liberals know they are in trouble because all of a sudden they don't want to pass budget resolutions or appropriations bills. Last year, the Democratic Congress failed to pass budget resolutions and failed to pass most of the appropriations bills. But they still lost 63 seats in the House.

Just today we learned that President Obama has agreed to a "big" deal on the debt ceiling. That means he wants a deal that will get him past November 2012. Of course he does. And no doubt in the last few weeks his staff have been working up a deal with as much in the way of phony spending cuts and as much in the way of real tax increases as they can.

But it really doesn't matter. The die is already cast for 2012 and it almost certainly means slow growth, high unemployment and rising inflation.

And then, after 2012, we have to get the economy back on track. That means swingeing spending cuts, because all government spending is waste. It means tax rate cuts, swapping special interest subsidies for lower overall tax rates. It means hard money, getting back to zero inflation. And it means repealing all the crazed hyper-regulation of the last two years. Oh, and it means reforming health care so that average people spend more of their own money on routine health care, economizing on health care just as they do on groceries and everything else they buy.

At the end of it all, we'll have a leaner, better, more hopeful America. But in the next couple of years we are going to see liberals trying every trick in the liberal play-book to put off the inevitable: the race card, the class card, the sob story, the civility card, the mean-spirited card. Don't forget the "it's for the children" card!

But I think that the game is up. Jonah Goldberg reports that young people are using the insult "that's racist!" as a joke. The Senate's class warfare resolution that the rich should pay more is already a joke to the chaps at Wizbang.

That President Obama and his staff are already playing race and class cards is an indication that they are going for a "base" election, and they are giving up on getting the independent vote. You mean the independents that elected the president back in 2008? And just how are Democrats going to get improved turnout from a base that turned out in record numbers in 2008?

As I say: next year is going to be an annus horribilis for liberals.

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