Monday, October 29, 2012

Are the President's Men Crazy?

The polls tell us that the independents are breaking strongly for Romney:
In the last three releases of the tracking poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, Obama has trailed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among independent voters by between 16 and 20 percentage points.
So what are the Obamis doing?  They are doubling down on motivating their base:
Obama isn't just going for a win. He’s shooting for a “realignment.” Obama is trying to shape a new kind of electorate, creating a long-term Democratic majority that would allow him and his successors to stop catering to the center and finally govern decisively from the left.
Let us give them the respect they deserve.  They don't want to win with the center ground.  That would not give them a mandate for their left-wing vision.  They want to win a left-wing mandate or nothing at all.

Maybe that's a grand and visionary idea.  Or maybe it is delusional.  In our lifetimes, whenever a presidential candidate has tried to go for a purely ideological win he has lost big time: think Goldwater and McGovern.  And you would think that for liberals this would be especially foolish.  If 40 percent of Americans call themselves conservatives and 20 percent liberals, how in the world can liberals hope to win on a straight ideological pitch?

Especially when you consider that Romney is pitching himself directly at the non-ideological middle ground.

My guess right now, given the partisan move reported by Gallup and Rasmussen from the +7 Democratic advantage of 2008 to an even-steven alignment or even a +1 Republican score in the last month, is that you have to think we are heading for a landslide, a 10 point victory for Romney.  If the current Romney 49-46 lead improves in the next few days as the Benghazi cover-up gets more play the 3 point Romney lead could increase to 5 points, and if the undecideds break for challenger Romney, as you would expect, then you are close to 10 points, 55-45 Romney over Obama.

Suppose the key to the election is not what the Obamis imagine is the "'demographically ascendent' left" but the 78-year-old lady from Iowa that voted for Obama in 2008.
"Obama gave us this 'no red, no blue state' America," said McAreavy, 78.

"I was fooled, I kick myself everyday," she said. "I said: 'In four years I'll get you buddy -- and I'm going to.'"
Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.  How many people in America are thinking just like that this month?  There were millions of Americans that thought that, in voting for Obama, they had put the race thing to bed.

Today they are kicking themselves, and they are saying:  Hey, pal.  Don't call me a racist; I voted for Obama in 2008.  And just to prove I'm not a racist, I am voting against him in 2012.

The problem about making a big bet on anything is that if you lose you are really out of pocket.  And Obama is not just playing with his money.  He is playing with the hopes of every Democratic partisan and elected official up and down the ballot.  If he loses then he is not just going into the wilderness himself.  He is sending his entire coalition into the political wilderness.

Oh well.  Maybe the Dems will come back like the Republicans came back after 1964.

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